Good evening, all - A few items for your consideration.
1) The rain that came Monday night into Tuesday brought 1.11" of rain to Nacimiento. 2.09" of rain at Rocky Butte with this storm. If there is a lot of rain at Rocky Butte, Nacimiento is good for increased water levels. This storm slowed the water releases momentarily, but it really did not do anything for the lake levels coming up. We need several storms in a row like we just had, to get the ground saturated first, then you will see runoff going into Nacimiento and making a positive difference. This last storm was a good start to the rain season, but I do not see any significant rain on the horizon for at least a few weeks.
2) Google USGS 11149300 and USGS 11148900. These two USGS sites monitor water in/water out of Nacimiento. USGS11148900 is closer to the eastern side of the Rocky Butte/Santa Lucia mountains. USGS11149300 is closer to the dam.
3) Most, but not all, water districts/municipalities use a water year for their water information. A water year is October 1st of one calendar year to September 30th of the following calendar year. We are right now in the water year for October 1st, 2025, to September 30th, 2026. Some water districts/municipalities use a calendar year. January 1st of one year to December 31st of the same year. Point of interest. When NRWMAC suspected and caught MCWRA taking an extra 12,000 acre feet of water beyond their permit allotment in 2018, we asked them what water calendar do you work off of? At first, they said water year. When pressed again about what water calendar they use, MCWRA replied calendar year. MCWRA can't have it both ways. One or the other. In the end, it really did not matter because NRWMAC caught them with the extra 12,000 acre feet of water either way. The California State Water Board went over this matter and agreed with NRWMAC and validated our extra 12,000 acre-feet of water findings.
4) Attached below are NOAA's October/November/December seasonal and monthly rain predictions. Nacimiento/Central Coast, two graphs on the right in white. Nacimiento is pretty close to right in the middle. From all weather channels I have listened to, NOAA, in particular, all say the same thing. 50/50 chance of above precipitation, or 50/50 chance of below precipitation. In 2023, it was a very similar situation with a weak La Niña. Not much rain was predicted, but Nacimiento had atmospheric river after river. 23" of rain that year. I'm keeping rain hopes alive. do your best rain dance for 2025/2026.
5) Also attached below is the MCWRA 2025 Nacimiento/San Antonio water release schedule. I'm not one to give MCWRA any kudos, but at a recent ResOps meeting, they made a point to say that if everything goes as planned, because of the 60cfs releases for the remainder of 2025, there will be +/- 5' more water in Nacimiento than what currently shows on the 2025 chart. My thoughts here. This begs the question, why can't MCWRA slow down releases from May 1st through Labor Day? That's prime recreation season. This is what NRWMAC is fighting for.
6) Lastly, as always, any and all donations to NRWMAC are appreciated. Your donations have kept us in the game/litigation for this long. We don't want to stop now or slow down because of a lack of $$$. Believe me, your donations are appreciated.
My best regards. Bruce McFadden. Heritage Ranch NRWMAC
Visit https://www.nrwmac.org/
